Taming White House Review of Federal Agency Regulations

This blog is part of the blog symposium published in conjunction with a new ACS issue brief: Reforming “Regulatory Reform”: A Progressive Framework for Agency Rulemaking in the Public Interest. View the other blogs in the symposium by Adam Zimmerman, Dan Farber, Peter Shane, and Rena Steinzor.

Presidents since Ronald Reagan have, by executive order, required agencies to submit significant regulatory actions to the White House for review. Academic and public interest observers have variously criticized this review as slow, opaque, chaotic, lawless, and power-grabbing. Yet every president in the intervening years has not only embraced but also deepened the control of the White House over individual regulations.

Even President Obama, who announced early in his first term that he was conducting a top-to-bottom review of this process, ultimately embraced strict White House control over the rulemaking proceedings of the executive agencies. President Trump has taken White House control over rules to a whole different dimension by ordering agencies to revoke two existing rules for every new rule they issue and by giving them "budgets" for the costs they may impose on private entities.

One way to address some of the recurring criticisms of White House review would be for the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), which runs the review process, to hew more closely to the actual provisions of the Clinton-era executive order that still structures this process. Closer adherence to the existing executive order's provisions on review deadlines, transparency, and an orderly process for elevation of issues to the President would address some of the criticisms about undue delays, a lack of transparency, and a chaotic decision-making process.

However, these procedural reforms would not address two basic criticisms: that White House review unlawfully supplants the authority of the agency that Congress has charged with making the relevant decisions and that the cost-benefit criterion that executive orders impose on agency rules is inconsistent with many of the regulatory statutes under which the agencies operate. In addition, the transparency-related provisions of the existing executive order, even if closely followed, would not be sufficient to achieve the degree of transparency we desire. To address these concerns, we propose four additional, and more fundamental, reforms.

Our first proposal is to return the White House review process to the understanding articulated when President Reagan issued the first executive order creating a systematic process of White House review. In 1981, soon after he entered office, President Reagan issued an executive order providing for an approval process quite similar to the one that exists today under a Clinton-era executive order. The Office of Legal Counsel in the Department of Justice reviewed Reagan's executive order for legality. In its opinion confirming the legality of the executive order, the OLC emphasized that the executive order did not purport to displace the authority of the acting agency. The OLC stated that "a wholesale displacement might be held inconsistent with the statute vesting authority in the relevant official."

We believe the OLC opinion had it right. Just as Congress's instructions as to the decisions an agency makes should be followed and not countermanded by the President and aides in the White House, so, too, should Congress's instructions as to the decisionmaker be followed. Some statutes explicitly delegate decision-making authority to the President; most do not. Yet the existing executive orders on regulatory review treat all laws delegating authority to executive agencies as if they delegate decision-making authority to the President. We think the presumption should be reversed: that laws delegating decision-making authority to executive agencies do not delegate decision-making authority to the President.

Our second proposal is to reorient the White House review process to focus on whether a proposed regulatory action is consistent with the underlying statute, and away from the current focus on satisfying a quantitative cost-benefit standard. Very few federal regulatory statutes establish formal cost-benefit analysis as the decision-making criterion. Injection of a formal cost-benefit standard into the White House review process drives a wedge between statutory standards and the standards the White House applies. The current approach inevitably leads to overemphasis on factors that can be easily quantified, encourages dubious efforts to convert all benefits to monetary terms, conflicts with the precautionary approach embodied in many statutes, and disfavors regulatory programs that aim to protect against future harms. For these reasons, we believe that rather than asking, “Does this rule satisfy cost-benefit analysis?,” OIRA should ask, “Does this rule establish a policy that is consistent with the underlying statutory framework and the evidence before the agency? Has the agency engaged in a rigorous analysis of the evidence?” Under this approach, White House review would not inject a new, extra-statutory consideration – satisfaction of a quantitative cost-benefit criterion – into the decision-making process on rules.

In fact, White House involvement is most questionable when it is based on statutorily impermissible factors. For instance, the White House might direct the agency to take a proposed action on the basis of cost, when the statute requires a decision based purely on public health. The Supreme Court has made it clear that this is a basis for invalidating an agency decision. In Whitman v. American Trucking Associations, after first holding that cost was not a factor that the EPA could consider in setting National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs), Justice Scalia went on to say:

Respondents' speculation that the EPA is secretly considering the costs of attainment without telling anyone is irrelevant to our interpretive inquiry. If such an allegation could be proved, it would be grounds for vacating the NAAQS, because the Administrator had not followed the law.

Courts should not inquire into the decision-making process without a strong showing based on publicly available information. But in some cases, this barrier might be overcome. When further inquiry confirms that the agency’s decision was based on legally irrelevant factors, a court reviewing an agency rule should send the rule back to the agency for reconsideration.

Our third proposal is to beef up the existing provisions on the transparency of regulatory review. The Clean Air Act offers a good model in this regard.  The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to place in the rulemaking docket all drafts of proposed and final rules submitted to OIRA, documents accompanying them, and written comments by other agencies along with EPA's responses to them. We would propose that these requirements be applied to all agencies and that the documents not only be added to the public docket but be included in the administrative record for judicial review.

Our final recommendation would be the repeal of Executive Order 13,771, issued by Donald Trump on January 30, 2017. That order goes well beyond the information gathering and coordination roles on which earlier presidents relied to support the White House review process. Executive Order 13,771 instructs agencies, in order to issue new rules, to identify two existing rules appropriate for revocation. It also instructs OIRA to impose on rulemaking agencies an annual ceiling on the gross costs to the economy that they may impose through new regulations. These provisions, which effectively amend agencies’ existing statutory authorities, go well beyond any constitutionally rooted presidential role; the president's duty is to faithfully execute the law, not to amend the law by executive order.

The Major Rules Doctrine—A “Judge-Empowering Proposition”

This blog is part of the blog symposium published in conjunction with a new ACS issue brief: Reforming “Regulatory Reform”: A Progressive Framework for Agency Rulemaking in the Public Interest. View the other blogs in the symposium by Lisa Heinzerling, Adam Zimmerman, Dan Farber, and Peter Shane.

If they get a fifth vote, conservative justices will march to the front lines in the intensifying war on regulation.  What will their strategy be? Two tactics are likely, one long-standing and one relatively new.  Both have the advantage of avoiding the outright repudiation of Chevron v. NRDC, 467 U.S. 837 (1984), although, as a practical matter, the outcome will be the same.

The first is to pull most cases into Step One of Chevron, granting unto judges the exclusive authority to say what regulatory statutes mean when they use faux plain meaning words like (in)appropriate, (un)acceptable, and (in or un)feasible.  As construed in multiple lower course opinions applying Chevron, such terms signify congressional intent that agencies gap-fill, making science-based choice that Congress did not resolve.

The second is the so-called “major rules doctrine,” which would allow conservatives to substitute their policy preferences in cases they decide are too important to be left to the civil service and the president.  In theory, application of this new approach begins by sorting regulations into two categories—routine rules, which would be submitted to a Chevron analysis, and major rules that will have great consequence for the economy.  A rule identified as inexpensive under traditional cost-benefit analysis should not qualify, although the doctrine is so elastic that it would give creative judges carte blanche to embellish how a rule would have adverse effects on society other than industry implementation costs.

Of course, conservatives are right that congressional gridlock has meant that many regulatory statutes are overdue for updating.  In the best of all possible worlds, the dire threat posed to the American republic by a dysfunctional legislature would be resolved by reforms that returned Congress to a normal work-week, curbed campaign funding by monied interests, and motivated bi-partisan deal-making.

Yet congressional difficulties should not obscure the opportunism of those who advocate the major rules doctrine.  By requiring detailed and specific congressional directives before agencies are authorized to write rules regarding emerging problems, conservative judges substitute their own policy preferences for those of the legislative and executive branches.  Those preferences are expressed in the negative—the agency cannot do X because we think its action will harm the economy.  But nothing less than an affirmative appropriation of power is at stake.  Broad adoption of the doctrine would ensure that regulatory agencies are seized by an extension of the gridlock that immobilizes Congress.

My Federalist Society counterparts would surely respond that stretching old statutes out of shape to a ridiculous degree to implement a liberal agenda amounts to an even more offensive power play.  But ridiculous degree is in the eyes of the beholder.  Take Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007), for example, a 5-4 decision that conservatives love to hate.  At the time of the lawsuit was brought, the agency was refusing to act on climate change, by far the most important item every put on its agenda.  The majority did not hold the statute at arm’s length and squint at it to divine congressional intent that the EPA mobilize to constrain industry behavior.  Rather, working within the Clean Air Act’s elaborate framework, the majority concluded that the agency must first decide whether anthropogenic contributions to climate change threatened human health and the environment. Only if it answered the question in the affirmative should the EPA act.   This “endangerment finding” took years to write and is so solidly supported by the available science that even the Trump Administration shrank from contradicting it.

Justice Antonin Scalia often scolded his colleagues for going beyond statutory language to reach their preferred conclusion.  In Zuni Public School District No. 89 v. Department of Education, 500 U.S. 105 (2007), he condemned a majority opinion that he thought ignored the statute’s plain meaning--and the language was specific--in favor of a long-standing misinterpretation adopted by the Department of Education.  The majority, he declaimed, had embraced the misguided notion that the statute’s “spirit” could trump its “letter,” which was “a judge-empowering proposition if there ever was one.” 500 U.S. at 109.  Disposing of Chevron by seizing power for the judiciary to neutralize statutes on policy grounds is far more dangerous than deferring to the civil service, as supervised by the president, in well-defined circumstances.

Rena Steinzor is the Edward M. Robertson Professor at the University of Maryland Carey Law School.

Group Justice in Administrative Courts

This blog is part of the blog symposium published in conjunction with a new ACS issue brief: Reforming “Regulatory Reform”: A Progressive Framework for Agency Rulemaking in the Public Interest. View the other blogs in the symposium by Lisa Heinzerling, Dan Farber, Peter Shane, and Rena Steinzor.

The vast majority of cases in our civil justice system are not decided in federal courts, but instead inside the quiet, understated offices of administrative agencies. Administrative courts make millions of critical decisions for people every year--like whether to discharge student debt, how to grant work visas or asylum for refugees, or when to pay for vital medical equipment, workplace injuries, disabilities or death benefits. But, as crushing case loads create more delays, inconsistent outcomes and new barriers to legal access, those tribunals are now experiencing a crisis. On September 19, 2018, for example, the Department of Education reported that over 105,000 students continued to anxiously wait for the Department to hear their claims for loan forgiveness, three years after the cataclysmic collapse of Corinthian Colleges. The Department of Veterans Affairs also recently acknowledged that veterans face average wait times of six years to obtain their disability benefits. Sadly, the "day in court ideal" has begun to fade as endless numbers of unrepresented claimants wait to resolve the same kinds of decisions before understaffed administrative tribunals.

As reformers appropriately call for more resources, judges, and even technological solutions, recently some agencies have begun to consider tools long used by federal courts to resolve common claims raised by large groups of people: class actions and other aggregate procedures.  In a series of articles, Michael Sant'Ambrogio and I have also explained why we think agencies can improve efficiency, consistency and legal access by taking a lesson from how our federal and state courts hear such cases.

Agencies have always enjoyed a lot of power to create procedures for the cases they hear. Unlike federal courts, agencies are not even constrained by the requirement that parties have “standing” or by statutes like the Rules Enabling Act, which prevent courts from adopting procedures that alter people’s substantive legal claims.  In our report to the Administrative Conference of the United States, a body that provides important guidance for all federal agencies, we found that Congress often gives agencies broad discretion under their organic statutes to adopt aggregate procedures. And indeed, over 70 agencies have adopted some kind of consolidation, class action or other rule to aggregate cases.  But we also found very few actually use those rules on the books.

However, the few agencies that have experimented with such rules have found that, in appropriate cases, aggregate procedures can provide more efficiency, consistency and access to justice.  The Office of Medicare Hearings and Appeals—facing a backlog of over 600,000 claims—instituted a new “Statistical Sampling Initiative,” which will resolve hundreds of common medical claims at a time by statistically extrapolating the results of a few hearing outcomes.  Although OMHA’s statistical sampling initiative is in its early stages, sampling will permit OMHA to resolve thousands of similar claims by the same appellants, sometimes involving the same beneficiary with only a different service date, in a handful of proceedings. Since launching the program, OMHA has been urged by medical providers to expand opportunities to aggregate and resolve large numbers of claims.

Similarly, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has long relied on an administrative class action procedure, modeled after Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, to resolve “pattern and practice” claims of discrimination by federal employees before administrative judges. The EEOC deems this process indispensable in light of the volume of claims it processes each year, the need for expert legal assistance, and the potential for inconsistent judgments.

The history behind the EEOC class action demonstrates how aggregate procedures don't just promote efficiency and consistency, but how they have played a significant role in promoting access to justice and structural reform. The Civil Service Commission, which heard government employment claims before the process was taken over by EEOC, first adopted a class action rule in response to litigation brought by the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. The NAACP sued the CSC in its effort to end discriminatory practices at NASA, which in the early 1970s employed fewer women or racial minorities than any other federal agency in the United States.  But the only way to show that NASA, or government employers like it, engaged in a "pattern and practice" of discrimination, was through a class action. The NAACP argued that the failure of the Civil Service Commission to hear class actions deprived government employees of tools they needed to prove workplace discrimination. In a case called Barrett v. U.S. Civil Service, the NAACP won, and, in March 1977, the Civil Service Commission adopted the first class action rules to adjudicate discrimination claims inside the federal government.

In 2016, based on our research, the Administrative Conference of the United States adopted new guidelines for agencies considering class actions and other complex procedures in their own hearings. Since that time, agencies have cautiously begun to explore using class actions and other complex procedures, illustrating the potential benefits class actions and other similar techniques for ordinary citizens seeking access to justice.

First, the Department of Education adopted a class action-like procedure to resolve groups of students claims for debt relief, following the collapse of the Corinthian Colleges and ITT.  Although the current administration has attempted to suspend the rule, a September 2018 court decision may reinstate it along with a number of other provisions for students seeking relief from schools that have committed fraud or gone bankrupt. With over 100,000 claims languishing at the Education Department for years, such a aggregate procedure could provide a path for groups of students with the same claims to get a timely hearing before the Department and, if necessary, an appeal to a federal court.

Second, the Federal Maritime Commission will hear arguments over its power to hear class actions in a case brought by American automakers and dealers who have sued various Chinese shippers for price fixing.  After a federal district court held that plaintiffs only could pursue their claims before the Commission, an administrative law judge dismissed the claims in May 2018, observing that the Commission had never before heard a class action.  The full Commission will determine whether it indeed has the power to hear those claims later this year.

Third, for the first time, an en banc panel of judges at the nation's Veterans Court in August 2018 recognized that it would hear class actions brought by veterans for systemwide problems at the Veterans Administration. Already a number of veterans legal clinics and service organizations have filed class actions to challenge disparate treatment of lawyers, unlawful rating decisions, mass delays and regulations denying groups of veterans benefits for radiation exposure.  The Chief Judge of the court called the opinion to hear class actions a "watershed" decision that will increase timely and efficient adjudication of claims for veterans and their families.

Administrative tribunals have long been seen as an alternative to the large number of complex cases seeking reform or relief in our federal courts. Years ago, even the Supreme Court barred federal courts from aggregating certain claims, stating that they defy judicial resolution. Instead, it called on Congress to establish administrative programs to provide “the most secure, fair, and efficient means of compensating victims.” And yet, our study of those same programs supports a very different conclusion: far from pushing the limits of adjudication, aggregate procedures form an essential part of the adjudication process in any court.

The Blumenthal & Nadler Decision: A Watershed in the Effort to Combat Presidential Corruption

You may have missed it amid the turmoil of the Kavanaugh proceedings, but on Friday federal district judge Emmet G. Sullivan ruled that the plaintiffs in Blumenthal, Nadler, et al. v. Trump have standing to sue the President for violating the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause. This is a watershed moment in the fight to hold President Trump accountable to the Constitution and its important anticorruption safeguards.

In a meticulous opinion that carefully parses the relevant precedent, Judge Sullivan concluded that President Trump is inflicting a cognizable injury on the Blumenthal & Nadler plaintiffs (whom I represent with my colleagues at the Constitutional Accountability Center) by allegedly accepting foreign emoluments without first seeking and obtaining “the Consent of the Congress,” as the Constitution requires.

The implications of the decision are massive: unlike the other lawsuits against the President for violating the Foreign Emoluments Clause, which are challenging foreign-government payments at his D.C. and New York hotels and restaurants, the Blumenthal & Nadler case has the potential to reach every business arrangement across the globe through which Trump is accepting money or other benefits from foreign governments.

This is a big deal. While the D.C. and New York hotels and restaurants are an important avenue through which foreign officials are ingratiating themselves with the President by lining his pockets, those hotels and restaurants likely supply only a small fraction of the money that Trump is reaping from foreign governments around the world. Even here in the states, according to one report, “the real money in the Trump empire comes from commercial tenants like the Chinese bank” who own or lease space in Trump’s numerous commercial towers. “Forbes estimates these tenants pay a collective $175 million a year or so to the president.” Saudi Arabia, for example, owns a floor in New York’s Trump World Tower for which it pays annual fees that have likely totaled at least $5.7 million since 2001.

And that is to say nothing of the President’s myriad businesses and licensing deals abroad, which include hotels, golf courses, media properties, management companies, and residential and commercial buildings in at least twenty countries. Each of those ventures presents opportunities for foreign governments to gain influence over the President by conferring lucrative benefits on him, whether through direct payments and loans or through regulatory decisions awarding permits, exemptions, intellectual property rights (like the dozens of “enormously valuable” trademarks that China granted him after he took office), and other advantages.

The Blumenthal & Nadler plaintiffs have standing to challenge all of these transactions, because, as Judge Sullivan concluded, every acceptance of an unauthorized benefit from a foreign government injures them in their official capacities as members of Congress.

It’s true that individual legislators are rarely allowed to sue over harm to their official powers—what the Supreme Court in 1997’s Raines v. Byrd termed an “institutional injury.” But the unique nature of the Foreign Emoluments Clause, and the ways that Trump is violating it, compel the conclusion that Judge Sullivan reached.

While Raines cut back significantly on the lenient standards for legislator standing prevailing at the time—which in the D.C. Circuit permitted standing for almost anything that diminished a lawmaker’s power or influence—it didn’t eliminate legislator standing.  Instead, it actually reaffirmed earlier Supreme Court precedent recognizing standing in the narrow circumstance where a legislator’s vote is “completely nullified.” That phrase, as the D.C. Circuit has since explained, means “treating a vote that did not pass as if it had, or vice versa,” in situations where legislators cannot adequately fix the problem themselves. And in a 2015 decision, the Supreme Court confirmed that nullification includes unlawfully denying an opportunity to vote, not just unlawfully disregarding a past vote. We explain these points at greater length in our brief opposing the President’s motion to dismiss.

Judge Sullivan agreed (as did another judge recently) that “complete vote nullification is clearly a type of an institutional injury sufficient to support legislator standing.” But is the President really denying members of Congress the chance to vote on his foreign emoluments? Couldn’t Congress vote at any time to express its disapproval of his conduct? Or pass legislation restricting it?

President Trump relied heavily on such arguments in our case—claiming, as Judge Sullivan put it, that our plaintiffs “have ample legislative remedies at their disposal; they just don’t have the votes.” That claim doesn’t hold up to scrutiny, though, leading the court to conclude that “the President’s purported legislative remedies are clearly inadequate.”

In part, this is because the Foreign Emoluments Clause is an unusual constitutional provision. It imposes a clear rule that the President may not take a particular action—accept a foreign emolument—without having previously obtained congressional approval. As Judge Sullivan wrote, “the Clause is unambiguous: acceptance is prohibited without ‘Consent.’” Like the Appointments Clause and the Treaty Clause, the Foreign Emoluments Clause mandates a specific procedure: the President submits to Congress a request to accept a particular emolument, and Congress responds (if it chooses) by voting on whether to consent. Settled historical practice dating to the 1790s confirms this understanding. The President can no more deny members of Congress that vote than he can install a Supreme Court Justice or put a treaty into effect without the Senate’s prior consent.

And the Framers wrote the Clause this way for a reason: deeply concerned about preventing foreign corruption of the nation’s leaders, they wanted any officeholder who wishes to accept a foreign-government benefit to bear the burden of moving Congress to action. That structure ensures that presidents can accept the largesse of foreign states only when a majority of Congress is willing to affirmatively give its approval on the record.

As Judge Sullivan observed: “The legislation suggested by the President flips this burden, placing the burden on Members of Congress to convince a majority of their colleagues to enact the suggested legislation.” Therefore, Congress’s general ability to legislate regarding emoluments is no substitute for the specific type of vote the Constitution guarantees. Nor does it suffice that Congress can express disapproval of emoluments the President already has accepted (assuming Congress learns about them), because such after-the-fact votes raise the same problem and cannot, in any event, force the President to relinquish those emoluments.

The other unusual aspect of the Foreign Emoluments Clause that is critical here is this: the Clause regulates the private conduct of federal officials, not just the performance of their governmental duties. If a foreign government offers the President a million dollars, he cannot accept it without consent. Period. It doesn’t matter whether the money is offered as a diplomatic gesture in a public ceremony, covertly in a dark alley, or in compensation for some private service rendered.

But the fact that Trump is violating the Clause through his personal businesses does have one significant consequence: it means that Congress cannot rely on its main tool for keeping the executive in line—its power of the purse. When a president ignores Congress’s voting prerogatives with respect to an environmental program or a military operation, for instance, Congress can stop the activities in question by cutting off their funding. No such option is available here, because Trump does not need government money or personnel to carry out his violations of the Clause.

There are other arguments and nuances at play, of course, but they are addressed in our brief and in Judge Sullivan’s opinion. The key point here is that no other constitutional provision features both of the unusual traits discussed above. That rare combination, along with President Trump’s brazen conduct, is why the Blumenthal & Nadler plaintiffs lack a legislative remedy adequate to address the denial of their voting rights. It’s also why they have standing to seek redress from the courts—for every foreign emolument that President Trump is accepting without their consent. Friday’s decision is a timely reminder of the judiciary’s vital role in holding presidents accountable when they violate the law.

Constitutional Democracy or Constitution Contra Democracy?

Tom Ginsburg and Aziz Huq

Will America be a democracy in 2050?  For a long time, many political progressives would have answered this question with a qualified and cautious “yes.” True, they worried about our pathological campaign finance system, the paralytic of partisan gerrymandering, and the toxin of voter suppression.

But they didn’t think of these as systemic, potentially catastrophic threats. Since 2016, progressives and many others have been concerned about a different sort of shadow on constitutional democracy. Americans suddenly became aware of a wave of “populist” leaders who seized on a political opportunity presented by economic crisis to discredit established parties on both the Left and Right.

Once in power, the populist adopted the rhetorical posture of speaking for “the People,” implying or openly asserting that opposition was not just disloyal but even treasonous. Necessarily, this populist’s challenge to political elites and claim to speak for the nation brought him—or, in the Argentinian case, her—into conflict with independent institutions such as courts, central banks, election administrators, and prosecutors. At times, this conflict leads to a collapse of free-standing checks on political power. Less constrained, populists begin mismanaging power and seeking ways to entrench themselves by direct attacks on opposition politicians, the media, and academia. In the extreme—as in Turkey—the end result is constitutional change that consolidates the populist’s power. Democratic forms remain, but largely as outer forms lacking substance or the prospect of real change.

In a new book, How to Save a Constitutional Democracy, to be published in October, we explain how this process has unfolded, in whole or part, first in Venezuela and Bolivia—where the assault on democracy came from the Left—to Poland and Hungary—where it was the Right’s turn. Our aim as legal scholars and comparative constitutionalists is to understand the distinctive role of law in democratic backsliding, and to examine the possibility that law can be used in a positive way to deflect the threat that democratic forms will be hollowed out not only around the world but also here at home.

So what does law—and in particular, constitutional law—have to say about the present dynamic of democratic backsliding? And what might we learn from other nations’ experiences?

Law and constitutional rules are now instruments of backsliding as often as they are defenses for democracy

A first, and centrally important, lesson is that the toolkit of anti-democracy has been rebooted of late: Law and constitutional rules are now instruments of backsliding as often as they are defenses for democracy. Comparing the legal instruments used to hollow out democracy elsewhere and the resources available with U.S. constitutional law, we reason the uncomfortable conclusion that while the U.S. Constitution may be good at checking coups or the anti-democratic deployment of emergency powers—yesterday’s instruments of anti-democratic movement—it is quite poorly suited to stalling the slow decay of democracy. Our 18th century Constitution singularly lacks the provisions necessary to slow down a would-be 20th century autocrat bent on the slow dismantling of democracy.

Consider then the legal tools wielded in other cases and how well regulated they are in the U.S. context.

First, many elected foes of democracy use constitutional amendments to strip away constraints on their power. In the United States, however, the cumbersome process of constitutional amendment makes it difficult for a president who wishes to amass more formal power. But this isn’t an unalloyed good: Because our Constitution is, by comparative standards, quite terse and unrevealing, it contains many dangerous ambiguities. For example, the text does not tell us explicitly whether a president has the power to pardon themselves—a gap that might soon prove vexing.

Second, in Hungary and Poland, democratic backsliding has started with direct attacks upon the

checks and balances flowing from other branches—in particular, national courts. In the United States, those checks exist, but their effect has been profoundly overstated, for interbranch checks on a president bent on consolidating political authority in the United States are remarkably weak.

Critically, they rest on theoretical assumptions that have proved in practice rather fragile. James Madison thought that the divergent “ambitions” of the legislative and executive branches would cause those institutions to balance one another. But he failed to anticipate the rise of a two-party political system at the national level.

The national party system has reshaped incentives. Members of Congress today may have little reason to investigate or otherwise rein in an aggressive president of their own party. That today’s Republicans are not eager to investigate President Trump’s financial dealings, or his contacts with Russia, is entirely predictable, from an institutional standpoint. (The failure to investigate properly the allegations against Judge Kavanaugh can be explained in the same terms, although undermine a different element of the separation of powers).

The U.S. Constitution does not grant rights to minority parties to demand information

Other constitutions give minority parties rights to demand information and make inquiries, but the U.S. Constitution does not. Too many of our election rules depend on the good faith of the party in power. As the omnipresence of gerrymandering shows, good faith may not be enough. After the 2010 redistricting in Wisconsin, the Republican Party was able to win 60 of 99 seats in the state legislature, despite winning less than half of the statewide vote.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Republicans tried a strategy that was straight out of Hugo Chavez’s playbook when their party’s candidate lost the governor’s race. They cut the governor’s staff by 80 percent, eliminated his ability to name trustees of the state university, and required that cabinet appointees be approved by the legislature. They also restructured the elections board so that they would hold the chairmanship during all statewide elections. Although these moves were rejected by the courts, there is no reason to expect that they will not be invoked again in other states, perhaps to greater success.

As the North Carolina example shows, the federal courts are critical in upholding the rule of law and defending democracy. But there is a growing acceptance in American jurisprudence of “deference” to the political branches. That ideology, in combination with aggressively partisan appointments -- Trump is in a position to fill 112 federal judicial vacancies, out of 870 seats — could erode public confidence in judges’ ability to stand up to government over-reach, and thus lead to democratic retrogression. Certainly, after a period of eight or more years with one party in the White House, it is hard to see how the courts could be much of a check on democratic backsliding.

Republicans may reshape how laws are interpreted for decades to come

Moreover, the notional independence of even the Supreme Court is more dependent upon “norms,” than constitutional rules such as tenure protection and salary guarantees. And norms can change. In a less polarized time, the U.S. Senate would have held confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, President Obama’s last Supreme Court nominee and allowed a more professional FBI inquiry into the allegations against Kavanaugh.

Yet by playing hardball, Republicans may end up reshaping how laws are interpreted for decades to come. One implication is that the nomination and confirmation process are likely to be more politicized, with more partisan candidates being proposed and appointed, and the federal courts becoming correspondingly less legalistic, more disparaging of interests other than those of the dominant coalition, and more heedless of the risk of democratic backsliding.

Other nations, unlike the United States, place judicial appointments beyond political control. Whether such judges are more independent or robust as defenders of democracy is an empirical question, but at a minimum, such systems reduce the ease with which politicians can tinker with personnel.

A third strategy observed in democratic backsliding is the gutting of institutional checks within the branches—such as prosecutors and public-regarding civil servants—that object to egregious forms of self-dealing and entrenchment. These officials are often sheltered, though, by constitutional rules. When this happens, backsliding seems more difficult to pull off.

But in the United States, the civil service is protected largely by tradition and statute, not constitutional rules. That is why the Republican move to lay off federal workers and reduce the benefits of those who remain is so significant, as was a gratuitous revival in 2017 of the Holman rule, which would have allowed the targeted defunding of a particular federal employee or specific program. Similarly, U.S. Attorneys serve “at the pleasure” of the president, and it is largely restraint – not always exercised -- that prevents presidents from punishing them or rewarding them for partisan legal attacks.

In other constitutions, independent ombudsmen’s offices monitor corruption and human rights compliance act as supplements to the judiciary to make up for the latter’s institutional weaknesses. Not so ours. Instead, institutions such as the Office of Government Ethics are staffed by the president, and are ultimately vulnerable to capture or marginalization.

Fourth, what of constitutional rights, which can be invoked as protection against the most blatant forms of anti-democratic behavior? While the First Amendment (currently) limits the misuse of libel law, it does not hedge the risk of partisan media regulation by the FCC or other agencies. Media companies seeking to keep regulators’ favor have now lots of reasons to trim the sails of their political coverage. And the First Amendment, for good or ill, arguably protects sources of outright propaganda – sites spreading lies about politicians, for example — which could in tandem with presidential attacks on the media lead citizens to distrust all news sources.

There is, in short, nothing particularly exceptional about the American Constitution—at least in any positive sense. Because of its age, the Constitution doesn’t reflect the learning from recent generations of constitutional designers. If anything, it is more vulnerable to backsliding than the regimes that failed in Poland, Hungary, Venezuela, Turkey and elsewhere. As a result, whether or not the United States moves away from its best democratic traditions doesn’t rest on the Constitution or on simple fidelity to constitutional rules. Those will quite plainly not be enough.

Nor will it be enough to belabor the technical legal merits or demerits of specific executive actions, or their opponents’ responses.  To do so misses the forest for the trees. In particular, those who insist on formal legality at the expense of considering the motives and immediate effects of an executive action do the republic a great disservice.

***

Authors’ note: Tom and I will be speaking about the book at a number of venues. We’ve listed them below. We’d love to engage with you, whether or not you agree with our diagnosis—but we hope our analysis sparks conversation and renewed thinking about our Constitution and its limits.

How to Save a Constitutional Democracy—Events

October 5

American Constitution Society and Brennan Center, NYU School of Law

October 7, 2018

Wesley Foundation, Champaign IL

October, 14, 2018
Jewish Community Relations Council, San Francisco, CA

October 15, 2018
Commonwealth Club, San Francisco, CA

October 23, 2018
Seminary Coop Bookstore, Chicago, IL

October 29, 2018
National Constitution Center, Philadelphia, PA

November 1, 2018
Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago, IL

November 1, 2018
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC

 

Attorney General Sessions Fudges Immigration Data. Again.

In a recent speech welcoming “the largest class of new immigration judges in history,” Attorney General Jeff Sessions took the opportunity to advertise some of the Trump administration’s more cynical anti-immigrant fabrications.

This one is about “catch and release”: immigration restrictionists’ pejorative term for the practice of releasing newly arrived asylum seekers and others during the pendency of their immigration proceedings. Such release has been contingent upon U.S. immigration officials finding that the migrants’ claims of persecution are preliminarily credible, and that they pose no risk of flight and no threat of harm to the public. The practice is not only legal and humane, but also efficient and effective.

As the myth goes, “catch and release” is to blame for a “surge,” starting under President Obama in 2009, in the number of people entering the United States illegally and, when apprehended, making asylum claims without merit. As a result, government agencies have been “overwhelmed,” and, therefore, this administration’s unprecedentedly brutal policies are justified.

As purported evidence, the Attorney General, first, cites an increase in the number of asylum claims at the border—from 5,000 in 2009 (4,000 of which asylum officers found preliminarily credible) to 94,000 in 2016 (73,000 of which were found preliminarily credible). Second, he affirms that only 20% of these “credible fear” findings, in addition to other asylum claims, have, “[f]or the last five years,” ultimately resulted in a grant of asylum upon a full hearing in immigration court.

Lies About Asylum Approval Rates

Actually, immigration court records show much higher asylum approval rates of 43% to 56% between 2009 and 2016, when compared with denial rates. The 20 % figure Mr. Sessions cites appears to refer to the asylum approval rate as compared with the asylum non-approval rate (which includes not only denials but also cases that were abandoned or withdrawn for any number of innocuous reasons).

Mr. Sessions has repeatedly mischaracterized this statistic as being synonymous with a low rate of meritorious asylum claims—and as a characteristic consequence of “catch and release.” But the figure is hardly unprecedented: it is well in line with the average asylum approval (versus non-approval) rate from 1973 to 1997 (23.6%)—the period immediately before current credible fear procedures were put in place, and when noncitizens claiming asylum at the border were more routinely guaranteed a full hearing in immigration court.

Lies About Illegal Entry Numbers

Mr. Sessions’ statement was even more misleading with respect to the number of illegal entries.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, still from 2009 to 2016, the estimated number of illegal entries decreased dramatically from about 1,300,000 to less than 700,000. The number of actual apprehensions at the border decreased from 541,000 to 409,000. (Thus, only a fraction of the people who entered the country illegally made asylum claims.) This gives us some sense of the amount of work born by immigration agencies dealing with the border. But given that, for example, in the year 2000, the number of border apprehensions alone stood at around 1,680,000 and there were far fewer border patrol agents, it seems beyond doubtful that the much lower unlawful entry numbers of the recent era could have really “overwhelmed” government agencies, as the Attorney General pretends.

The Northern Triangle “Surge”

To be sure, a significant increase in border apprehensions has been observed primarily for nationals of the Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras)—roughly from 39,000 to 200,000. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the total number of (border plus other) U.S. asylum applications by this specific population also increased roughly from 7,250 to 107,000 during the same 2009-2016 period—largely accounting for what Mr. Sessions decries as credible fear claims “skyrocket[ing].”

The resulting total number of U.S. asylum applications in 2016 remained comparable to the number in, say, the years 2002 and 1995. Again, nothing unprecedented here. Regardless, the recent increase is most soundly explained by discrete factors specific to the relevant population—not by massive fraud which, according to Mr. Sessions, resulted from generally applicable policies of the last administration. (Otherwise, why were nationals from other countries not similarly incentivized by “catch and release”?) Indeed, as UNHCR data shows, the number of Northern Triangle asylum seekers in countries other than the United States also massively increased—eightfold, from 1,900 to 16,000—between 2009 and 2016.

Among the relevant “push” factors were, notably, the fact that, as reported by the Council on Foreign Relations, by 2015, Northern Triangle nations “consistently rank[ed] among the most violent countries in the world” with “significantly higher homicide rates” than their neighbors, particularly due to gang violence. Homicide rates in El Salvador and Honduras spiked particularly between 2009 and 2016.

Moreover, while the average immigration judge approval rate on asylum applications by Northern Triangle nationals has been closer to the 20% figure Mr. Sessions cites, this figure is, in fact, significantly higher than past approval rates for the same population. According to UNHCR data, for example, in the year 2000, for all three countries combined, there were 714 approvals for 5,264 denials, or an approval-versus-denial rate of about 12%—and 21,522 relevant asylum decisions total, bringing the (otherwise misleading) approval-versus-non-approval rate to a tiny 3%. That was a decade before the “surge” Mr. Sessions misattributes to “catch and release.”

Protection, Interrupted

Other factors explaining lower asylum case approval rates for Northern Triangle nationals include their lower likelihood of being represented by an attorney, compared with citizens of other major countries of origin for asylum in the United States—except Somalia. Somali asylum approval rates were less affected by this disadvantage, probably because they were based on a larger set of more familiar grounds for asylum early in the notoriously tumultuous 2009-2016 period—including violence at the hands of militant groups, as well as female genital mutilation. By contrast, caselaw recognizing the kind of persecution suffered by Northern Triangle nationals as a result of widespread gang violence or chronic gender violence was still being developed as of 2014. It is the latter developments that Attorney General Sessions abruptly ended in a 2018 decision now being challenged by the ACLU.

It is not the first time the nation’s chief legal official is caught either blatantly distorting publicly available data in an attempt to fit his preferred anti-immigrant narrative, or paying lip service to the “rule of law” only to undermine this principle’s underlying values of truth and fairness.

Sadly, given his—and the President’s—unrepentant record, it will likely not be the last.