[Part I of "Supersizing the Second Amendment?" is available here.]

So why do I still say that gun control advocates are also seemed to be big winners?

Because the Justices seemed to think that, regardless of incorporation, state and local governments would retain wide leeway to enact gun control. The only words used as much as "fundamental" and "implicit in ordered liberty" in the argument were "reasonable regulation."

Numerous Justices expressed their support for the idea that the Second Amendment did not prohibit reasonable regulation of firearms. Justice Kennedy said that lawmakers still "have substantial latitude and ample authority to impose reasonable regulations." Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said that she "thought that Heller allowed for reasonable regulation." Justice Scalia didn't use that catchphrase, but went out of his way to say that Heller "was very careful not to impose" severe limits on the federal government "precisely because it realized that" gun violence "is a national problem."

There are two ways to think about "reasonable regulation." The first is what I've long endorsed: the Second Amendment should be governed by the formal "reasonable regulation" standard uniformly used in state constitutional law. Forty-two states have constitutional protections for the individual right to bear arms and all of them apply a deferential standard by this name. Under that test, any regulation will be allowed to stand so long as it doesn't effectively destroy or nullify the individual's right to have a gun for self-defense. Some types of weapons can be banned so long as individuals have access to others. Applying this test, almost all gun control survives.

The second way to think about "reasonable regulation" is not as a formal test but as shorthand for allowing lawmakers broad leeway to regulate guns. This seems to be what the Court did in Heller. The Justices did not formally adopt the state law standard of review. Instead, they adopted categorical rules and recognized a number of gun control "safe harbors." While they don't create a standard of review, the exceptions listed out in Heller encompass most forms of gun control. None of these are constitutionally infirm under the Second Amendment.

The distinction between these two ways of thinking about reasonable regulation may be more theoretical than practical. The legal effect of Heller has been to permit the vast majority of gun control laws to survive judicial review. In fact, not a single law has been invalidated for violating the Second Amendment since Heller. That's not for a shortage of cases. There have been over 150 federal court decisions on the constitutionality of gun control since Heller and none ruled that the Second Amendment was infringed. Whether the Court promotes the state law standard of review or approaches the Second Amendment with categorical reasoning, the effect on gun control is the same. It almost always survives.

Of course, even if the Court makes clear in McDonald that most gun control laws don't run afoul of the Second Amendment, there are certain to be some laws invalidated in the future. Permitting or licensing laws that give unfettered discretion to police chiefs over who can have or carry a firearm are troublesome, and open the door to arbitrary determinations. Constitutional rights shouldn't be subject to anyone's discretion. But even if that type of law is invalidated, almost all other sorts of gun control laws seem destined to survive.

Maybe McDonald will "supersize" the right to bear arms by applying it to the states. But the effect on gun control is likely to make this landmark case little more than a small fry.

[Image via slimmer_jimmer.]